The worlds actions today will be crucial to create a sustainable energy system. Ppt on present energy scenario linkedin slideshare. Powerpoint presentation global warming and the coming. For the energy system, metals are significant for technologies used in both the demand and supply side of energy. Climate change cold dry storms reduction in carrying capacity food water energy national security implications. This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a u. Europes road to decarbonisation and the single market 1. These scenarios, which stimulate debate and help inform the decisions that will shape our energy future, have never been more important especially when you consider the extent to which the energy landscape is being transformed. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 7 trends four trends were identified as determinant for the oil and gas industry when the years that separate us from 2040 are analyzed.
The aeo is developed using the national energy modeling system nems, an integrated model that captures interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices. For example, the iea estimates the fossil fuel share was 82 percent in 2012, while bp estimates it was 90 percent. These regionally focused scenarios are is produced using. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments will affect the global issues analysed in part 1 chapters 14.
Pbl netherlands environmental assessment agency is the national institute for strategic policy analysis. The global primary energy consumption at the end of 2003 was equivalent to 9741. Department of energy workshop participants dorothy koch, department of energy. India became the worlds third largest producer of electricity in the year 20 with 4. Indicators play a vital role by turning data into information for policy makers and help in decisionmaking. It represents the second of two volumes of the fourth national climate assessment, mandated by the global change research act of 1990. We inform global, regional and national energy strategies by.
To enable national climate assessment nca authors to do the indepth analysis necessary to make the fourth national climate assessment nca4 most useful, the u. Future energy scenarios july 2018 01 welcome to our future energy scenarios. Restrictions on the supply of those materials may significantly influence the realization of scenarios aim at limiting the increase in average global temperature to 2. Note that the share of fossil fuels is larger in outlooks that exclude nonmarketed energy.
World energy insights brief global energy scenarios comparison. Bau energy use results in a doubling of the rate of global energy use in 50 years in an era which will be characterized by tightening energy supplies. The full list of locations roadmap working group members is provided in the appendix. The global wind energy outlook scenarios as presented by gwec and greenpeace gwecgreenpeace, 2008 examine the future potential of wind power up to 2030, starting from a range of assumptions which will influence the development of the wind industry. In february 2011, ecofys published the energy report ter, a global scenario for a transition to a.
Added new scenarios on 2 degrees, electrified heat and road transport, and updated our coal phaseout scenario. The council of australian governments coag energy council and the department of industry through the national hydrogen strategy taskforce is developing a national hydrogen strategy. This scenario takes into account the current and planned policies. We inform global, regional and national energy strategies by hosting highlevel events including the world. The energy system implications of this 2019 scenariobased update. Global sea level rise scenarios for the united states national climate assessment december 6, 2012. We inform global, regional and national energy strategies. Added new sections on coal and gas power technology, the future grid, energy access, policy and the lcoe of phase ii decarbonization technology such as ccs, biogas, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear and solar thermal.
Hydropower facts and information national geographic. While we seek to enhance our operations average energy intensity through both the development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a netzero emissions portfolio over our investment. New energy outlook 2019 bloomberg new energy finance. The usa had the largest share of the global reserve 25. Pdf the global energy scenario in 2050 researchgate. Transforming the global energy system would permit affordable, and universal, energy access, increase energy security, and diversify energy supply.
The energy sources, that are either found or stored in nature are a secondary energy sources b primary energy sources c both a and b d none of the above 2. Second, global energy demand continues to shift eastward. Government printing office gpo, superintendent of documents, po box 391954. Typically measured per year, it involves all energy harnessed from every energy source applied towards humanitys endeavors across every single industrial and technological sector, across every country.
Report of the national intelligence councils 2020 project based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world december 2004 to obtain a copy of this publication, please contact. It does not include energy from food, and the extent to which direct biomass burning has been. Between 1997 and 2011, the global value of these services has decreased by an estimated usd 20 trillionyr. We synthesized three existing sets of scenarios raskin et al. Ieas 450 scenario, it includes assets across a spectrum of energy intensities, including some with aboveaverage intensity. Sergey paltsev massachusetts institute of technology, cambridge, ma, usa. Energy modeling or energy system modeling is the process of building computer models of energy systems in order to analyze them. Outputs may include the system feasibility, greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative financial costs, natural resource use, and energy.
World energy consumption is the total energy produced and used by the entire human civilization. This work has been authored by employees of the alliance for sustainable energy. Diversifying south africas energy mix global africa network. Global energy scenarios energy forecasting 2017 edition. Commercial and noncommercial energy, primary energy. Global trends 2025 is the fourth installment in the national intelligence councilled effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future.
Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Data tools and scenario products fourth national climate. The coag energy council has committed to a vision of making australia a major player in. Current energy scenario i government of nepal water and energy commission secretariat singha durbar, kathmandu national energy strategy of nepal. World energy scenarios 10 key messages 1 energy system complexity will increase by 2050. Therefore, applying the scenario planning method, this research develops four scenarios in irans 2025 vision, through a combination of the changes in energy consumption and re generation.
Global energy outlook 2015 international energy forum. Australian and global hydrogen demand growth scenario. A need for a lowcarbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the longterm energy scenarios development. These are based on the premise that the instability experienced in wind energy markets to.
National hydrogen scenarios national renewable energy. Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty, as many of the events that shape energy. Energy scenario in india the electricity sector in india had an installed capacity of 250. The conservative and reference scenarios focus on how changes in technology cost and performance affect outcomes. This report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the united states. The national climate assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the united states, now and in the future. Global change research program usgcrp provided author teams with an array of data tools and scenario products.
The country has significant potential of generation from renewable energy source. Consequently, ewea is proposing three growth scenarios to 2020. Member states should adopt early national energy and climate action plans based on a binding tem. World energy scenarios united states energy association. Future energy scenarios 2019 01 our energy system is already transforming as the trends of decarbonisation, decentralisation and digitisation revolutionise how we produce and use energy every day. Whereas national utility eskoms supply of power was insufficient for a booming south african economy in 2008, the global economic slowdown that kicked in later that year meant that by the time independent producers were selling to the grid also controlled by eskom, electricity demand was much reduced. An abrupt climate change scenario and its implications for. National electrification assessment examined four scenarios with epris usregen energyeconomy model1 to consider opportunities, drivers, and challenges for electrification figure es1. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. Global sea level rise scenarios for the united states. In 2016, the world energy council and its scenarios partners. Pdf on nov 1, 2010, halsnaes k and others published the global energy scenario in 2050 find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate.
Keeping in view the importance of energy goal no 7 of sustainable development goals, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations. A sustainable energy scenario for the united states. Scenario planning scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe. The energy system and climate change are strongly linked to metals demand and supply. The world energy council has been developing and using world energy scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new opportunities for successfully managing global energy transition. Like the scenario presented below, fossil fuels and corn ethanol are eliminated although unlike the scenario presented below, so are nuclear and all other forms of ethanol. Brief outline of global scenario stories jazz symphony world where there is a consumer focus on achieving. Once a dam has been built and the equipment installed, the energy sourceflowing wateris free.
This is an 80% increase of global percapita energy use assuming global population peaks in 2050 at around 9 billion people. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the grand transition. During the last years global energy scenarios have been developed by. This approach is used for the national trends scenario, the central policy scenario of this report, recognising national and eu climate targets, notably the draft national energy and climate plans necps. Energy laboratory, as well as brian bush national renewable energy laboratory, matteo muratori national renewable energy laboratory, and jarett zuboy independent contractor. Such models often employ scenario analysis to investigate different assumptions about the technical and economic conditions at play. This summer the electricity system operated coal free for over two weeks and carbon intensity of generation last winter reached a new low. Ecosystem services are a major contributor to sustainable human wellbeing. Examples of global and danish energy scenarios in 2050.